Diary 2024-07-03
On stochastic events that succeed 10% of the time and fail 90% of the time
The act of saying, "I'm going to fail anyway," is not very informative. The act of saying, "You will succeed," has a high probability of being said in the future, "It was a wrong prediction of the future. Most ventures fail.
There is value in challenging attempts that can fail.
The "I'm going to fail anyway" attitude is unhelpful.
The value of working together for a common goal
Considering my capacity capacity, I actually don't watch open lines and I don't watch videos synchronously.
I think there are some interesting things to look at, but the capa...
nagarumiyake I happened to be out and about and heard a street speech by candidate Takahiro Yasuno. I had always been interested in this candidate, but I was concerned that he might be too much focused on AI and technology. However, after listening to his speech, I felt that he had a clear understanding of Tokyo's issues, agenda, and logic. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GRhqLfeakAAKDxE?format=jpg&name=medium#.png
nishio #Takahiro Yasuno's manifesto summary version, I was told it's been read 160,000 times, I checked and it's true. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GRiUl5yaMAAu2ii?format=jpg&name=medium#.png
Well, there are 14 million people in Tokyo.
10 million voters.
takahiroanno #Takahiro Anno Team's Poster Operation for Tokyo Governor From Startup to Automation｜banbiossa #note https:// note.com/banbiossa/n/n10e65e0ffaa1?sub_rt=share_h... It explains why an independent candidate was able to put up posters in 13,000 locations in Tokyo
https://gyazo.com/b0038add8c262178963a882325867a36
But it's nice to be young + volunteer. The sense of speed is different.
KosukeYAMAchan I wrote an article about the #Tokyo gubernatorial election. When I heard about it before the announcement, I was skeptical, "Can he really do it? But after the announcement, he showed the ability to implement his ideas one after another. He and the team that supports him have "sincerity. nishio #Takafumi Horie and #Takahiro Yasuno in conversation. At first, the conversation was underestimated, but midway through, Mr. Yasuno immediately responded to Mr. Horie's tough questions with concrete ideas and the response of "I see" gave the impression that he was satisfied with the results. I hope this will be an opportunity for everyone to think about what we can do now to improve Japan! - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/live/dFfp8oP4v-4?si=Rn4FqPhN1i7Axr-V] Takafumi Horie x Yuichiro Tamaki Who is the other person Tamaki is paying attention to in the Tokyo gubernatorial election...? A part of ZATSUDAN is open to the public! nishio "To drop candidate A, put in the second-place candidate B" is typical rhetoric used by supporters of candidate B, but it does not work if it is unclear whether the second-place candidate is B or C. This is a known problem of one-person, one-vote majority rule and can be improved with digital technology and mechanism design. #Digital Democracy Majority Judgement Study Group. problem of a split vote
Introduce a situation in which "a majority of people do not like the decision" is reached by "choosing one of the candidates and voting by majority".
In that situation, the Majorty Judgement shows that the majority's preferred decision can be made
snowdance87 Good article that gets right to the point as well as showing careful reporting. When I watch Mr. Yasuno, I can't help but catch glimpses of how the media people I come in contact with become "skeptical at first and respectful at the end".
>KosukeYAMAchan: I wrote an article about the #Tokyo gubernatorial election. When I heard about it before the election, I was skeptical, thinking, "Can he really do it? But after the announcement, he showed the ability to implement his ideas one after another. He and the team that supports him have "sincerity. golden_lucky After all, direct elections are like a "pledge" contest, so it's good to see issues pulled out into the open, whether or not those who are elected can deliver on them. It's good that issues are brought out into the open, regardless of whether the elected person can realize them or not. >amagumo_metal: The video is so ugly it gives me chills. The base opponents on the side that caused the death of the security guard said to the Defense Bureau official, "One person is dead, you know! It would be normal to go burn incense immediately! As a human being!" They yell at him, "What the hell is this? What is this?
shuzaibusoku7 History of the intimidation trial that will be sentenced today > <9/30/2020 closed session meeting
Kumataka: "If they use social networking sites to lose elections, it's not going to happen."
Mayor: "I might do it. It's my political activity."
Yamane: "If you do that, the mayor can control the council. Are you going to go so far as to do that?"
https://pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/1808283652624994305/pu/img/MA6kRAkSSStpm9ql.jpg#.png
>:
kazunori_279 I agreed. (Actually, it is orthogonal to LLM.) I have a strong feeling that they are giving a new name to the idea of trying to deal with IR problems with LLM, and how are they inheriting past IR achievements and how are they making new ones? Many of them want to ask. >yu4u: I read it obliquely but it was interesting.
I think that most of the RAG improvements are basically in the framework of information retrieval rather than LLM, but I wonder if there is a lot of talk about RAG in SIGIR these days. x.com/sue1242/status...
sue1242 Here is a summary of the RAG's Survey paper. At first, I intended to summarize only the Survey paper, but when I found some parts that were difficult to understand in the Survey paper, I repeatedly traced back to the sources cited in the Survey paper.
I hope this will be helpful to you, "Is there such a method?
hillbig Just as we don't need parsing or semantic analysis in language processing with LLMs today to solve the dialogue and machine translation we really wanted to solve, so too in image processing, image classification and object detection may not be necessary to solve the final task. This presentation by Girshick, who has created modern object detection, argues that image classification and object detection may not be necessary to solve the final task in image processing. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VodGljuEhBKwZIXQwN-ApH6g2 wBAVAdK/view... He said that it is not a mistake to have studied object detection so far, and it is true that we have accumulated and advanced our knowledge by doing so, but in order to advance further, it is necessary to think about what is the problem we really want to solve instead of creating better object detection. Object detection tasks are too limited, fragile, and data constrained; it is important to question the thinking that has been taken for granted for 50~60 years, and to think about what tasks (each person) really wants to solve.
maekawa_net Yuriko Koike's speech in Akihabara yesterday; when a woman wearing a placard criticizing Koike around her neck tried to enter, Koike said, "You can't go in. Koike's campaign staff. Ehh--! There are people holding critical placards elsewhere. Are the voices of Tokyo residents, which are painful to hear, also "excluded"? https://pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/1808281699584991233/pu/img/ccnZjoqqmwDh2zob.jpg#.png
ISOKO_MOCHIZUKI Koike, the governor of Tokyo where the needy gather, has never visited the site in the past eight years, even though he has talked about it. This time, when Renho Councilor visited the site, the following week she said "10,000 yen gift certificates for 1.9 million needy households," but does Koike really want to save them? https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GQ4vOF_bwAAy6zz?format=jpg&name=medium#.png
>:
mas__yamazaki Today's NHK 9pm news. The regular news of NHK, Japan's public broadcaster. They did not do a second of talking about the Tokyo gubernatorial election. > Eiichi Shibusawa's new paper money story goes on and on. None of the other items and so on.
What, did they cancel the Tokyo gubernatorial election? Next Sunday is no longer voting day?
Really creepy TV.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GRfCb-6b0AM_JDU?format=jpg&name=small#.png https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GRfCchHb0AgWo5N?format=jpg&name=small#.png https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GRfCdGdb0AUyY8i?format=jpg&name=small#.png https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GRfCdunb0AMuPDZ?format=jpg&name=small#.png
mas__yamazaki Tokyo is the capital of Japan, right? The Tokyo Metropolitan Government is the capital of Japan and the gubernatorial election will be held in five days. The current governor, Yuriko Koike, has been suspected of corruption, including the illegal sale of Tokyo-owned land at a discount, massive descent from the government to the company to which the land was sold, and opaque spending of huge amounts of public funds on Dentsu. Is "Shibusawa bread in Shibusawa Eiichi's hometown" more important news? https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GRfEG0tb0AIGP1f?format=jpg&name=medium#.png
mas__yamazaki At some point, NHK and the major media suddenly started praising Eiichi Shibusawa in an unusual way, which I thought was unnatural. I thought it was unnatural, but it turns out that Eiichi Shibusawa was involved with both Dentsu (Nippon Telegraph and Telephone) and Hakuhodo (Hakuhodo, the advertising division of Naigai Tsushinsha). Shibusawa's new paper money to hide the Tokyo gubernatorial election? A composition symbolic of today's Japan. >kimuratomo: Shibusawa Eiichi and Dentsu. The portraits of the foster parents of the propaganda agency are on the highest denomination of the new banknote. The TV stations are all over it. Nippon, after all, is Nippon. This is a very clear indication of the intentions of those in power who consider how to maneuver the country more important than protecting the lives of those who live in it. https://eiichi.shibusawa.or.jp/namechangecharts/histories/view/678 ... paya_paya_kun People who get tired easily have long "monologues" (monologues) and their minds are like a "lonely gourmet" with a very large amount of information. Moreover, their mental voice is negative, so they get tired even when they are lying down. This type of person will seriously not be able to hold on to life unless they practice not thinking about anything. That's me. fraisst I stumbled across this image Are you sure you got this many people?
I mean, I can't get to the station, and where's the walkway?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GRZFvCbbkAEd7gj?format=jpg&name=medium#.png
hirax I see a tweet that says "Human and banana DNA is a 50-60% match. The number of DNA bases in a human is about 3 billion, and the number of DNA bases in a banana is about 500 million. If ......, the maximum percentage is about 17% if the percentage is a human standard. This means that these tweets are based on the banana standard, and bananas may be muttering. In other words, the number of DNA bases matches about 200 to 300 million. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GRVtn8baEAAywWX?format=jpg&name=medium#.png
Formosanhistory This is not entirely true. In Taiwan, which used to be a FB empire to the extent that it was even said, "If you don't have a Facebook account, you are not a human being. This is one of the reasons why FB has rapidly declined and has moved to Twitter, which almost no one was doing. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GRehSjdbcAAanZv?format=jpg&name=medium#.png
MaedaPoliSci The dissenting opinion by Justice Sotomayor in the U.S. Supreme Court's just issued decision on the Trump immunity case, says an amazing thing. The President is now a King who exists above the law." https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GRaR04EXcAADgU-?format=jpg&name=medium#.png
kaityo256 Listen, student. Don't argue on the internet. They are conclusory, so there is no way to change their opinions. They don't even want your opinion in the first place. Don't waste your glorious youth on old people killing time. "The mood within the party is no longer 'second place is not good enough' regarding the gubernatorial election, but 'even if we come in second, we want to somehow close the gap with Koike,'" said a Rikken lawmaker. But, as expected, third place would be too bad.
↓
kikumaco It will be interesting to see how many votes Kuniaki Shimizu and Takahiro Yasuno can get. Even though they are far from reaching Koike and Renho, I think they are much more serious than Koike and Renho. I would like to see these people get some votes. tinasuke Tokyo's official account hasn't called out "Let's go vote" once, which is great. It's already this weekend, right? mas__yamazaki This surprised me too. I was also surprised that the administrative structure of the capital of Japan advertises the projected lights but does not post any call for voting for the Tokyo gubernatorial election. It's not a matter of jurisdiction. There is nothing wrong with posting "go vote for a better future." Discovery to those who don't want voter turnout to go up. raeyu02 The selectmen are doing it. @tocho_senkyo
You seem to like conspiracy theories.
I almost RT'd this one.
It would be a shame to abandon the claim just because the winner of that round is almost certain.
>namidomero: "I'd like to support Mr. Anno, but he's a bubbly guy and I'm not sure if he'll get the votes of the leading candidates..."
If you are thinking, wait a minute!
Mr. Anno, in his campaign,
[Policy, not politics
The company is committed to
Are the above actions not "politically" oriented?
suika__penguin What I've learned from talking to the bureaucrats is that... "The Japanese are so unassertive I don't know what they want us to do."
That's what I mean.
"Decent people are silenced, so all you hear is the voice of the weirdo."
I feel like I have a problem with that.
If voices are not heard, no matter how much we want to do good politics, they cannot be reflected in policy.
suika__penguin Even if it is small when you start advocating, the number of votes will snowball as more and more people sympathize with you. This is just a matter of time
But the snowball doesn't grow very large in Japan, where people are silenced because they can't get together to sympathize with each other.
That's why it's hard to make political moves, and the bureaucrats really don't know what to do.
suika__penguin Like Germany, only crazy people who keep insisting can create snowflakes in those countries. From such countries come cult regimes like the Nazis.
suika__penguin If you think you're the decent one, you have to insist. The ones who think they're sane but don't insist on it are creating a breeding ground for cults.
shogochiai RuleMakersDAO and many others, but I think this is the one I'm supporting. >suika__penguin: if you think you are the sane one, you must insist!
The ones who think they're sane but don't insist on it are creating a breeding ground for cults.
shogochiai It fills a lot of Japanese needs to be able to make a point without being out in the open. nishio "All you hear is the voice of the weirdo because decent people are silenced." There is a term "silent accomplice" that refers to this (g0v manifest).
nishio However, we know that there are many people who cannot openly support the candidates because of various reasons, for example, "I cannot campaign because I am an employee of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government" or "I cannot campaign because I am an employee of a university. We know that there are many people who cannot openly support a candidate. There are also those who support us in a way that does not mention a specific candidate's name. We are very grateful for their support. I'm sure One O'Clock fans will understand.
You shouldn't use politics when you're not a fan.
They don't target a general audience, and they don't think they need those people in their territory."
hirox246 We'll have a candidate debate every night to reverse the fact that Governor Koike won't debate. "If you want to argue against the Koike administration's failures and unfulfilled promises on the agenda, why don't you all join me in thoroughly criticizing it?"
Koike's chances of winning the popular vote are slim unless he can convince the floating voters that his administration is the right one to lead the city. Koike will be able to run away with the election if he does not make the floating voters think "Is it bad if Koike is in charge of Tokyo?
A candidate who won a state compensation lawsuit against the Koike metropolitan government in his spare time may be an active candidate or something.
>hirox246: As I said in the Tokyo gubernatorial election debate, how can each candidate cut Koike's votes? If they don't work on this, they will end up with Koike's runaway victory.
The only way to win is for each candidate to blame the Koike administration in solidarity.
Even if they increase their popularity by advocating their respective policies, they will lose if they don't reduce the Koike vote. 2nd place is not enough.
---
This page is auto-translated from /nishio/日記2024-07-03 using DeepL. If you looks something interesting but the auto-translated English is not good enough to understand it, feel free to let me know at @nishio_en. I'm very happy to spread my thought to non-Japanese readers.